Saturday, February 23, 2013

NASCAR: 2013 Championship Contenders Countdown — #2. Matt Kenseth



2012 Review:
2012 was another strong season for Matt Kenseth. The Wisconsin native won three races and finished seventh overall in the points standings.

He began the year by winning the Daytona 500, becoming the ninth driver in NASCAR history to win the Great American Race multiple times.

While he wouldn't win another race for another 29 starts, Kenseth posted enough strong finishes to take the points lead after the 14th race of the season, at Pocono. He would hold on to the top spot for five more weeks.

During his stretch as points leader, it was announced he would be leaving Roush Fenway Racing, the organization he had driven for over the entirety of his Sprint Cup career. In early September, he announced he would be heading to Joe Gibbs Racing in 2013, taking over the No.20 car from Joey Logano.

Despite his status as a "lame duck" driver, Kenseth seemed poised to make one last run at a championship with RFR. However, finishes of 18th, 14th and 35th to start off the Chase dashed his title hopes from the very start.

The post-season wasn't completely lost; Kenseth would go on to win two more races during the final seven races of the year.


2013 Preview:
2013 will be all about change for Kenseth.

Instead of driving Roush Fords, he'll be piloting Joe Gibbs Toyotas. Instead of Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards, his teammates will be Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. And instead of Jimmy Fennig, whom with he won six races in two years, Kenseth's crew chief will be Jason Ratcliff, who has one full season as a Cup Series crew chief and one victory, both last season with Joey Logano.

Kenseth is someone that his new team hasn't had on the driver roster since Tony Stewart left to form his own team before the 2009 season: a former cup champion.

Not only should his experience as a driver and usual mild mannered demeanor make the transition to his new race team as smooth as silk, those traits might actually rub off on teammates Hamlin and Busch, strengthening the entire company beyond Kenseth's own car.


2013 Prediction:
Usually, you could expect a driver to get off to a cold start when he moves to a new team. Take Kasey Kahne, for instance, who in his first year with Hendrick Motorsports needed seven races before recording his first top-ten finish.

I don't see that happening with Matt Kenseth.

A model of consistency, Kenseth should have little trouble racing the No.20 car up front week in and week out. If JGR has gotten over several technical glitches that bit them repeatedly last season — and I believe they will have — then this team should be a fixture near or at the top of the points standings throughout 2013.

Kenseth will thrive with his new race team, and JGR as a whole will thrive with their new driver.

Expect the No.20 team to be near the top of the standings as the Chase nears its conclusion, putting Kenseth in prime position to claim championship number two.


J-Mac's 2013 Top 12 So Far:
2. Matt Kenseth
3. Kyle Busch
4. Brad Keselowski
5. Jimmie Johnson
6. Clint Bowyer
7. Jeff Gordon
8. Tony Stewart
9. Denny Hamlin
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
11. Greg Biffle
12. Carl Edwards

Thursday, February 21, 2013

NASCAR: 2013 Championship Contenders Countdown — #3. Kyle Busch



2012 Review:
It was a season to forget for Kyle Busch, who missed his second Chase for the Sprint Cup in four years and finished 13th in the series standings.

The Joe Gibbs Racing driver won only once during the campaign, the lowest total since his final year with Hendrick Motorsports in 2007.

While the season saw several downs — wrecking early at both Bristol and Martinsville toward the beginning of season, losing engines in two consecutive weeks at Dover and Pocono, hitting oil and getting turned by Brad Keselowski while leading at Watkins Glen, just to name a few — none were more excruciating than what happened during the regular-season finale at Richmond.

With Busch holding on to the final Wild Card spot for the Chase with a 13 point cushion on the nearest competitor, he seemed like a lock to make NASCAR's post-season. After all, Richmond is easily one of his best tracks.

However, a late pit strategy call went awry, and as he fell to 16th, Jeff Gordon rose to second and stole the final Wild Card spot by one single point.

His season wasn't without a few highs, of course. Aside from his win in the spring event at Richmond, he also led 1436 laps, second only to Jimmie Johnson.

Busch also ended the season on fire, finishing within the top five in six of the final seven events, including four straight to close out the year. This could be the biggest moment of his season, potentially setting him up for a hot start in 2013.


2013 Preview:
Busch and the No.18 team will have to figure out this little old thing called consistency if they're to be taken seriously as a title threat. They also need to iron out glitches that seem to plague the Las Vegas native with alarming frequency.

Whether it be wrecks, blown engines, poor pit calls, driver errors or anything else imaginable that could hurt a race car, these glitches seem to strike the No.18 at the most inopportune times — such as blown engines in the first couple of races in the Chase in 2008 or as documented above in last year's regular season finale.

The occasionally temperamental Busch will also have to continue working on controlling his emotions, an area he made strides in last season, though there's certainly room for improvement.

Simply put, Busch has the talent to win on any given racetrack on any given day. The team around him has the talent to give him equipment to make him competitive and keep him up front consistently.

They all just need to start acting like it.


2013 Prediction:
Kyle Busch is an enigma. The eye test shows he has as much talent as anyone in NASCAR. The numbers, namely his career points finishes, don't support that belief.

Even his top-five streak to end last season could be argued another way; he led so many laps without winning any of those events, it would seem he and his team did their fair share to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

To that end, it could be considered crazy to predict that this team finally gets over these issues that have followed them for the better part of five seasons and actually contend for a championship deep into Chase.

If that's the case, sign me up for the asylum.

Disregarding that he wasn't actually in it, Busch finally put together a strong Chase, scoring the second most points during that ten-race stretch.

Drivers who end the year strongly have a history if competing for the title the next year. Both Denny Hamlin's and Carl Edwards' runner-up campaigns — in 2010 and 2011 respectively — were preceded by finishing among the top point scorers in the previous year's Chase.

There's also the small matter of adding Matt Kenseth to the Joe Gibbs Racing fold in 2013. His calm demeanor and veteran leadership should pay huge dividends with both Busch and Hamlin.

So, while trusting the No.18 team is sketchy at best, they're too talented to not make a title run here soon.

The stars have aligned themselves nicely for it to be in 2013.


J-Mac's 2013 Top 12 So Far:
3. Kyle Busch
4. Brad Keselowski
5. Jimmie Johnson
6. Clint Bowyer
7. Jeff Gordon
8. Tony Stewart
9. Denny Hamlin
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
11. Greg Biffle
12. Carl Edwards

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

NASCAR: 2013 Championship Contenders Countdown — #4. Brad Keselowski



2012 Review:
2012 was a banner year for Brad Keselowski, who solidified himself among NASCAR's elite by becoming the 29th different Sprint Cup Series champion.

His season began slowly, with two finishes of 32nd within the first three events if the year. Despite winning the fourth and tenth races of the season — at Bristol and Talladega respectively —Keselowski would not enter the top ten in points standings until June 10th.

From there, however, he would assert himself as a major title threat, winning three more races and finishing off the season by scoring 17 of his career-high 23 top-ten finishes in his final 20 starts of the year.

Despite a pedestrian 15th place result in the season finale at Homestead, Keselowski was able to clinch his first career Sprint Cup Series title by 39 points over Clint Bowyer.


2013 Preview:
In just his third full year at Penske Racing, and his second working with crew Paul Wolfe and the No.2 team, Keselowski has not only reached the pinnacle of the sport, he has proven he can win be competitive on any type of race track.

He won races on the high banked half-mile at Bristol, the restrictor-plate dependent superspeedway at Talladega, 1.5 mile "cookie-cutters" at Kentucky and Chicago, and the mile-long Dover International Speedway.

He also finished second at Watkins Glen, a 2.45 mile road course, after a thrilling last lap battle with Marcos Ambrose and Kyle Busch. This versatility as a driver makes him a potential threat to win every weekend, therefore giving him a legitimate shot to defend his title.

One major change that Penske Racing, and therefore Keselowski will have to deal with is the organization's change in manufacturers. After ten years racing Dodges, Penske is switching over to Fords for 2013.

Along with various changes that come along with switching manufacturer, they will also no longer be building their own engines in house, instead leasing Roush/Yates engines.


2013: Prediction
Brad Keselowski, Paul Wolfe and Penske Racing sent Dodge out with a bang last season by winning the manufacturer's first driver championship since 1975. Now they hope to defend that title with Ford.

It will be interesting to see how well the organization adjusts. Ford's engine program is considered among the finest in the sport, so Penske Racing should reap the benefits.

All of that said, winning a championship is among the most difficult things to do in sports. Defending that title is even tougher.

A driver the caliber of Keselowski will certainly be up to the task, but not everyone can repeat (and repeat, and repeat, and....) the way Jimmie Johnson had for much of the last decade.

He definitely won't be out of the title mix, by any means. But don't expect him to catch that lightning-in-a-bottle that is so necessary to make a run in the Chase this time around.


J-Mac's 2013 Top 12 So Far:
4. Brad Keselowski
5. Jimmie Johnson
6. Clint Bowyer
7. Jeff Gordon
8. Tony Stewart
9. Denny Hamlin
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
11. Greg Biffle
12. Carl Edwards

Monday, February 18, 2013

NASCAR: 2013 Championship Contenders Countdown — #5. Jimmie Johnson



2012 Review:
Another year, another run at the Sprint Cup title for five-time champion Jimmie Johnson.

It didn't start beautifully, with Johnson getting turned on the second lap of the season's first event, the Daytona 500.

From there, though, Johnson finished the next eight races inside the top 12, and won owner Rick Hendrick's 200th race in the Southern 500 at Darlington. Johnson ended up with five victories in 2012, including two in the Chase, and was the points leader with two races remaining.

However, a blown tire at Phoenix and transmission trouble in the finale at Homestead clinched the title for Brad Keselowski. Johnson would finish third overall in the standings.


2013 Preview:
Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus remain one of the top driver/crew chief pairings in the sport. Together they've won 58 of Johnson's whopping 60 races in the Sprint Cup Series. They've won on every type of track.

And they have won five championships together.

Yeah, It's safe to say the No.48 team will be a contender yet again, especially considering they have never finished worse than sixth in the points standings.

It also doesn't hurt that Hendrick Motorsports has a knack for handling getting a jump on the competition when a new car style is introduced. They won the first five races in the old Car of Tomorrow when it was implemented part-time in 2007.


2013 Prediction:
Now we're getting into the drivers who we'll be taking about late into the season as the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

Jimmie Johnson has been a beast since entering into NASCAR's Sprint Cup Series. The numbers speak for themselves.

These guys are the only team in the sport who can fail to win a championship in two consecutive seasons and people begin to wonder if something is wrong. The expectations for Johnson are near ridiculous.

Well, he won't fulfill those expectations again this season, postponing the "six-pack" celebration for another calendar year.

But it certainly won't be without a fight.

J-Mac's 2013 Top 12 So Far:
5. Jimmie Johnson
6. Clint Bowyer
7. Jeff Gordon
8. Tony Stewart
9. Denny Hamlin
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
11. Greg Biffle
12. Carl Edwards

Sunday, February 17, 2013

NASCAR: Danica Patrick, Stewart-Haas Racing Make First Statement of 2013



For better or worse, Danica Patrick has dominated the headlines when it comes to NASCAR's offseason. Whether it be her love-life, her shoes, or seemingly what she eats for breakfast, the media has gone all-in on Danica coverage these past couple of months.

Now she's done something that nobody can deny is newsworthy.

Sunday, Patrick became the first woman in NASCAR's history to earn the pole position for a Sprint Cup event. She did so by qualifying first for what is undeniably the most prestigious event of the year, the season opening Daytona 500.

Her lap time of 45.817 seconds out paced that of Jeff Gordon, who will start on the outside of the front row for the 500, by .033 seconds. It was the fastest pole speed at Daytona since 1990, which can be largely attributed to NASCAR's new Gen-6 car which has improved downforce over years past, and therefore more speed and grip.

But this isn't the entire story.

No, not talking about Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Patrick's main competition for Rookie of the Year, and more interestingly, her boyfriend. He posted the 12th best time, by the way.

No, I'm speaking of Stewart-Haas Racing, the race team Patrick drives for, which consists of co-owner/driver Tony Stewart and driver Ryan Newman.

Newman posted the fourth fastest speed in time trials, while Stewart posted the fifth best speed overall.

That's three-for-three in the top five.

Many of the drivers admitted during Fox's telecast of Sunday's qualifying session that Daytona time trials were all about the speed in the cars and the work the teams had put in during the off-season. Five-time champion Jimmie Johnson even referred to himself as a "monkey", lending credence to the thought that a trained monkey could lay down a solid lap at a restrictor plate track as long as it was piloting a strong race car.

"I appreciate the recognition," Patrick told the media after the conclusion of qualifying, "but it really falls 90 percent on (crew chief) Tony (Gibson) and these guys and everybody that gives me the car to go out there and be fast.

"And maybe ten percent on me."

So while Sunday wasn't a showcase of ability as far as the drivers were concerned, it was a display of the talent and hard work put in by the race teams as a whole over the offseason.

SHR obviously won the day, the first real competition between all race teams to see who could be fastest first with today's new Gen-6 race car.

Stewart noted to the media the difficulty of preparing this new car for Speedweeks.

"Not only for our organization but for all the organizations and all the teams, this was probably one of the most difficult winters that I can remember from my 15 years of going through offseasons here for teams to actually get prepared to come down here to Daytona, and to have three cars in the top five like that, I'm just really appreciative and excited we were able to bring down three consistent cars like this."

The only other multi-car organization that displayed similar consistency, with all team cars posting a top ten speed, was Joe Gibbs Racing. Denny Hamlin was seventh, Kyle Busch was eighth and Matt Kenseth ran the tenth fastest speed of the day.

But time trials, and therefore the first small victory of 2013, belonged solely to SHR, which Stewart partly attributed to great chemistry between the drivers and crew chiefs working under his organization's umbrella.

"I think Danica's actually got two boyfriends," Stewart joked. "She's got Ricky (Stenhouse Jr.) and then she's got Tony Gibson. They are all but holding hands in the shop every day they are together."

He continued, "It's good for me to see as an owner. I like to see that chemistry. Ryan (Newman) is happy being back with (crew chief) Matt (Borland). Tony and Danica are happy. And I'm happy with Steve (Addington).

"Having three teams that the drivers and crew chiefs are getting along and happy to be paired up where they are at, that's something that goes a long way. You'll see in the first eight to ten weeks just how powerful those pairings really are."

While we can only make an educated guess at how powerful Stewart's teams will truly look after that period of time, at this moment the chemistry at SHR has the company's most buzz-worthy driver in position to lead the field to the start NASCAR's biggest event.

"It's really amazing how much work is put into a qualifying car for the Daytona 500, when really only the front row sticks Sunday," said Patrick.

"It's nice that all that hard work can pay off and that we can give ourselves the opportunity to lead the pack down into the tri-oval for the green flag of the Daytona 500."