The NASCAR season is, unbelievably, already at the halfway mark. With 18 races down, that means only eight races remain until the Chase for the Sprint Cup field is set and the championship race is truly on.
That means it's time to start evaluating each driver's chances of making NASCAR's playoffs, and to do so, I'm starting a little thing called "Chaseology."
It's nothing special, simply a way to separate each driver into separate tiers and analyze what it will take for each driver to make the Chase, plus their chances of making noise once they get there. This will be (hopefully, with some self-butt kicking) done weekly, and the tiers will undoubtedly change as teams gain steam or fall apart at the seams.
Given the high volume of drivers still in the hunt, I will spread my tiers over the course of a few days for these first couple of weeks. I'll be starting with drivers who I believe are pretty much assured a spot in the Chase.
So, without any further babbling by myself, let's gets started.
<b>Mathematical Locks</b>
None. Yet.
<b>Virtual Locks (on points):</b>
<u>Jimmie Johnson</u>
Status: 4 wins; points rank: 1st, +165 points on 11th (3.4 races)
Last five finishes: 1st, 28th, 9th, 9th, 1st
Career at NHMS: 22 starts, 3 wins, 8 top fives, 15 top tens (last five finishes: 25th, 5th, 18th, 7th, 2nd)
Jimmie Johnson will be a part of the Chase, that much is certain. The only debate surrounding his Chase status is whether or not he'll win the whole thing. Johnson's last six races have been borderline ridiculous, with the No. 48 team leading 565 — or 44 percent — of the total laps run and accumulating two wins during that span. There is plenty of time for things to change and momentum to be gained or lost between now and September, when NASCAR's version of the playoffs begins. But if it began today, you have to wonder if the rest of the field would be merely battling for second place.
<u>Clint Bowyer</u>
Status: 0 wins; points rank: 2nd, +116 points on 11th (2.4 races)
Last five races: 15th, 7th, 5th, 3rd, 4th
Career at NHMS: 14 wins, 2 wins, 4 top fives, 6 top tens (last five finishes: 1st, 17th, 26th, 3rd, 4th)
Clint Bowyer has been extremely consistent over the past few months, with ten finishes of 11th of better in the last 13 races. With that in mind, his Chase eligibility is all but assured in 2013. Still, Bowyer has yet to win this season, which would hurt him if it began today. Luckily, it doesn't, and the Sprint Cup circuit is heading to a speedway where Bowyer has had a solid track record. A win there would be a great help to his championship aspirations.
<u>Carl Edwards</u>
Status: 1 win; points rank: 3rd, +94 points on 11th (1.9 races)
Last five races: 18th, 8th, 3rd, 21st, 29th
Career at NHMS: 17 starts, 0 wins, 2 top fives, 3 top tens (last five finishes: 11th, 13th, 8th, 18th, 19th)
Carl Edwards has found the going rough of late, with only two top-ten finishes in his seven previous starts. Don't expect that to change this week in Loudon, where he has been mediocre for his entire career. Still, he built up enough of a gap on 11th with his performance at the start of the season that he can simply top-20 his way to the Chase. That won't be enough for a championship; the No. 99 team needs to make some lengthy strides to become a legitimate title contender.
<u>Kevin Harvick</u>
Status: 2 wins; points rank: 4th, +92 points on 11th (1.9 races)
Last five finishes: 9th, 2nd, 10th, 10th, 3rd
Career at NHMS: 24 starts, 1 win, 5 top fives, 12 top tens (last five finishes: 5th, 21st, 12th, 8th, 11th)
I don't think I could have been more wrong about Kevin Harvick before the season began. Rather than struggling to earn a Chase spot due to their driver's status as a "lame duck," the No. 29 team has emerged as a legitimate threat to the Sprint Cup title. With nine top ten finishes in his last ten starts, Harvick has become the very model of consistency. Throw in the two wins earned during that same stretch and you have both of the ingredients needed for legitimate championship contender: the ability to run well every weekend and the ability close out races with a victory. It remains to be seen if the team manages to remain focused in spite of its' driver's impending departure. If they manage to perform in the Chase as they have through the season's first half, however, they won't just be participants in the Chase; Harvick and company might just win it.
<b>Virtual Locks (on wins):</b>
<b>Matt Kenseth</b>
Status : 4 wins; points rank: 6th, +47 points on 11th (1.0 races)
Last five finishes: 25th, 6th, 19th, 1st, 33rd
Career at NHMS: 26 starts, 0 wins, 5 top fives, 12 top tens (last five finishes: 23rd, 20th, 6th, 13th, 14th)
All you have to do is look at his last five finishes and you'll notice one thing: Matt Kenseth, once known as this era's Mr. Consistency, has fallen prey to the Joe Gibbs Racing way. In other words, while he's putting huge numbers — not the least of which being his four wins, a series high he shares with Johnson — he's also prone to mechanical failures and other odd anomalies that seem to strike that team. Kenseth's wins and strong performances on 1.5 mile ovals (which make up half of the Chase itself) are signs that he can and should be a contender for the championship. Well, as long as they can cut down on the number of poor finishes, anyway.
<b>Kyle Busch</b>
Status: 2 wins; points rank: 7th, +40 points on 11th (0.8 races)
Last five finishes: 6th, 4th, 35th, 5th, 12th
Career at NHMS: 16 stars, 1 win, 4 top fives, 6 top tens (last five finishes: 9th, 36th, 11th, 16th, 28th)
Basically everything written above about Kenseth can be copied and lasted here. Kyle Busch has 11 finishes of 12th or better this season. That would be excellent, if that stat wasn't paired with another one: he also has seven finishes of 23rd or worse, including five of 34th or worse. Like his JGR teammate, it's been feast or famine for Busch all season long. His talent alone makes him impossible to dismiss as a title contender once the Chase starts. However, until the No. 18 team cuts down on the poor finishes, it's equally as difficult to take them truly seriously as a championship threat.
