2012 Review:
After a disappointing 2011 season, Denny Hamlin returned to prominence in 2012, winning five races and scoring 14 top-five finishes.
Hamlin picked up his first victory of the season at Phoenix, the second points-paying event of the year. It was also just his second race with new crew chief Darien Grubb, who was fresh off of winning a championship the previous year with Tony Stewart.
While the hot start should have boded well for Hamlin — he held the points lead two races in — the No.11 team quickly cooled off, finishing outside the top ten in four of their next five starts. However, they followed that stretch up with their second win of the year.
Those first eight races summed up the theme of Hamlin's season quite nicely, that theme being wild inconsistency. While his aforementioned 14 top-fives ranked second in the Sprint Cup Series, he only scored three other top-ten finishes — his total of 17 ranked 11th among drivers.
He led 1226 laps — third in the series — but also finished outside of the top fifteen 14 times. His four wins made him the top seed once points were reset for the Chase, but, despite winning the second event of the post-season, he was rendered a non-factor due to six finishes of 13th or worse in the ten-race playoff.
2013 Preview:
Now a little over a full year removed from winning a championship, Darien Grubb returns for his second season as crew chief for the No.11.
Grubb isn't the only championship experience at Joe Gibbs Racing this season; Matt Kenseth, the 2003 champ, has made the move over from Roush Fenway Racing. His calm demeanor and veteran leadership should have a positive effect on the entire organization.
This of course includes Hamlin, who could use a little bit of Kenseth's trademark consistency rubbing off on him.
The expectations will be high for the No.11, with his past history of being able to win races — 18 over the last four years, second in the series over that span — and the championship calibre talent around him.
2013 Prediction:
Denny Hamlin has made the Chase for the Sprint Cup every single full season of his career. So, knowing that, betting that he'll make the post-season top twelve is about as safe as it gets.
From there, though, is where it gets tricky. He's a proven winner, having won 22 races on 12 different racetracks over the course of his career. But, as previously stated, he's wildly inconsistent, just as prone to clicking off streaks of poor finishes as he is able to rack up wins.
Hamlin will benefit greatly from the addition of Kenseth to the JGR stable, but at the end of the day, I just don't see it having enough of an effect to make him a championship contender like he was in 2010.
At least not yet.
J-Mac's 2013 Top 12 So Far:
9. Denny Hamlin
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr
11. Greg Biffle
12. Carl Edwards
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